Community Prediction Polls ask members to forecast a future, verifiable outcome — for example, whether a segment's average EV adoption share will cross a stated threshold by a given date, or which body style will see the biggest year-over-year sales shift. Polls stay open for 2-4 weeks, resolve against a stated public data source on a fixed date, and correct predictors earn a Forecaster point bonus plus a running accuracy percentage shown on their profile.
At a glance
| Element | Detail |
|---|---|
| Typical poll duration | 2-4 weeks open for votes |
| Resolution | Against a named public source, on a stated date |
| Reward for correct call | Forecaster points + accuracy % tracking |
| Poll cadence | New poll roughly every 2 weeks |
| Minimum votes to resolve | 50 votes, else poll is voided |
What makes a good prediction poll question
Every poll question is written to resolve against a real, checkable source — a government registration dataset, a manufacturer's published sales report, or a named industry tracker — stated in the poll itself before voting opens. We avoid vague questions ("will EVs get more popular?") in favor of specific, falsifiable ones ("will [segment]'s EV registration share exceed a stated percentage by [date], per [named source]?").
Poll lifecycle
- Poll opens with the question, the resolution source, and the resolution date clearly stated up front
- Voting window runs 2-4 weeks depending on how far out the resolution date is
- Poll closes to new votes once the window ends, locking in everyone's prediction
- Resolution happens on the stated date, checked against the named public source
- Results posted with a link to the actual data used to resolve it, so the process is auditable
Why polls can be voided
If fewer than 50 members vote, or if the named data source doesn't publish the needed figure by the resolution date (this happens occasionally with slower government or industry reporting), the poll is voided rather than resolved arbitrarily. Voided polls award no points to anyone and are marked clearly in the poll archive.
| Outcome | What happens |
|---|---|
| Prediction correct | Forecaster points awarded, accuracy % increases |
| Prediction incorrect | No points, accuracy % decreases |
| Poll voided (low turnout or missing data) | No points either way, marked voided in archive |
The Forecaster accuracy score
Alongside raw points, your profile shows a running accuracy percentage across all polls you've voted in, which resets only if you explicitly request it (useful if your early guesses were more casual than considered). This is meant to reward genuinely thoughtful forecasting over sheer volume of votes.
Polls are for community engagement and discussion, not financial or purchase advice — a poll trend is not a guarantee about future vehicle values, availability, or incentives.
How polls connect to broader News & Trends coverage
Several polls are timed to track questions raised in our News & Trends explainers (EV adoption pace, ADAS rollout, incentive shifts) so members can put a number on trends discussed there and see, months later, how the community's collective guess actually played out.
Frequently asked questions
Can I change my prediction after voting?
What happens if the data source disagrees with another source?
Do I need an account to view poll results?
Are prediction polls the same as the Battle of the Brands Poll?
How far in advance are new polls announced?
Sources & further reading
- Pew Research Center — Social Media and Community Engagement
- Nielsen Norman Group — Gamification and UX Research
Figures, prices and policy details were current at the last-updated date above. Automotive pricing, incentives and regulations change frequently — verify time-sensitive details with the linked primary sources. Read our editorial policy and fact-checking standards.
