Our depreciation estimator projects a vehicle's resale value over 1-10 years using its starting price, segment-typical depreciation curve, mileage assumption, and condition. Most new cars lose 20-30% of value in year one and roughly 50-60% by year five, though EVs, luxury brands and low-demand segments can depreciate faster, while trucks and a handful of resale-strong brands (Toyota, Honda) hold value better than the segment average. The tool gives a range, not a guaranteed resale price — actual value depends on real market demand at the time of sale.
At a glance
| Input | How it affects the estimate |
|---|---|
| Starting price/MSRP | Base for the entire depreciation curve |
| Vehicle segment | Sets the default annual depreciation rate (sedans, trucks, EVs differ) |
| Annual mileage | Above-average mileage accelerates value loss |
| Ownership length | Value loss is front-loaded — year one hurts most |
| Brand resale strength | Adjusts the curve up or down vs. segment average |
What the depreciation estimator actually calculates
The tool takes a starting price and applies a segment-based depreciation curve, then layers on adjustments for mileage, brand resale reputation and ownership length. The output is an estimated value range for each year of ownership, plus a total percentage lost — not a single guaranteed number, because real resale value depends on local market demand, vehicle condition and timing that no calculator can fully predict.
The inputs that move the estimate most
- Starting price — every later-year estimate scales directly off this number, so an accurate purchase price (including typical discounts, not just MSRP) matters.
- Segment — sedans and minivans tend to depreciate faster than trucks and off-road SUVs, which hold demand better in the used market.
- Annual mileage — the tool assumes roughly 12,000-15,000 miles/year as a baseline; higher mileage pulls the estimate down faster.
- Brand resale reputation — brands with strong reliability reputations and high demand (Toyota, Honda, some truck brands) get a positive adjustment versus the segment average.
- New vs. used purchase — buying a car that's already 1-2 years old skips the steepest depreciation year, which is reflected in the estimate.
Typical depreciation curve by year
| Year of ownership | Typical value remaining |
|---|---|
| Year 1 | 70-80% of original price |
| Year 3 | 50-60% |
| Year 5 | 40-50% |
| Year 10 | 15-25% |
These are broad, segment-typical ranges based on widely cited industry patterns, not fixed rules — a strong-demand EV or a truck in short supply can hold value far better than average, and an unpopular sedan trim can fall faster.
How EVs and hybrids differ
Electric vehicles have historically shown wider depreciation swings than gas vehicles, partly because battery technology and incentive programs move quickly, which makes older EVs look less competitive faster. Hybrids tend to track closer to their gas-engine counterparts, sometimes holding value slightly better where fuel prices are high. The estimator applies a wider uncertainty range to EVs for this reason.
How to use the output when comparing cars
- Compare the percentage lost, not just the dollar figure — it normalizes across different price points.
- Look at the 3-year and 5-year marks specifically, since those match common trade-in and loan-payoff timelines.
- Treat the estimate as a planning range, not a quote — get an actual appraisal before selling or trading in.
- Re-run the estimate if your mileage plan or ownership length changes significantly.
Depreciation estimators can't price in a specific accident history, a sudden model recall, or a local supply shortage. Use the tool for planning and comparison, not as a substitute for a real appraisal at sale time.
Where estimates commonly go wrong
The most common error is entering full MSRP when most buyers actually pay a negotiated price below sticker — this inflates the apparent value loss. The second most common error is ignoring mileage: a car driven well above average will fall faster than the default curve suggests, and one driven well below average will hold value better than the default.
Frequently asked questions
How accurate is a car depreciation estimator?
Do electric vehicles depreciate faster than gas cars?
Which cars hold their value best?
Does high mileage always mean lower resale value?
Should I trust the tool's number when negotiating a trade-in?
Sources & further reading
- iSeeCars — Vehicle Depreciation Studies
- Kelley Blue Book — Understanding Car Depreciation
- Edmunds — True Cost to Own
Figures, prices and policy details were current at the last-updated date above. Automotive pricing, incentives and regulations change frequently — verify time-sensitive details with the linked primary sources. Read our editorial policy and fact-checking standards.
